Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 3.795747 4.166830 4.602887 5.166931 5.900679 6.862861 8.305064
2025-01-26 3.398422 3.874515 4.486647 5.379004 6.755209 9.081045 14.541960
2025-02-02 3.208426 3.759273 4.517462 5.739716 7.967988 13.177090 52.800227
2025-02-09 2.996071 3.565393 4.380994 5.782455 8.666352 17.896539 NaN
2025-02-16 2.842948 3.426249 4.290213 5.860717 9.501113 27.526959 NaN
2025-02-23 2.650805 3.207975 4.042445 5.589051 9.336160 32.532269 NaN
2025-03-02 2.546932 3.107336 3.965215 5.618935 10.026848 69.094300 NaN
2025-03-09 2.449726 3.006974 3.874329 5.598719 10.584158 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.341479 2.881534 3.728128 5.434075 10.554563 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.298364 2.851491 3.738349 5.605531 11.999670 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.198605 2.727530 3.575415 5.359834 11.462825 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.105242 2.609403 3.415596 5.103997 10.789730 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 2.033946 2.525337 3.314876 4.984148 10.778247 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 2.011786 2.516770 3.345660 5.175864 12.561852 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 2.006638 2.534260 3.424233 5.506698 16.215450 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.967009 2.493673 3.391907 5.545750 18.057642 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.933782 2.461595 3.372639 5.617324 20.840302 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.869906 2.376498 3.246833 5.368436 18.868399 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.838267 2.343290 3.218605 5.395870 21.080287 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.804131 2.304448 3.176822 5.377313 22.822605 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.759166 2.246031 3.093854 5.225949 21.768625 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.746278 2.240322 3.113040 5.383567 28.539700 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.698808 2.175139 3.011644 5.157561 24.520116 NaN NaN